Additional logical fallacies beyond the common ones
25 cards · philosophy
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| Front | Back |
|---|---|
| Survivorship Bias | Focusing on successes while ignoring failures E.g., studying successful startups while ignoring countless failed ones. |
| Base Rate Fallacy | Ignoring population rates when judging specific evidence A rare disease positive test may still mean low chance of infection if prevalence is tiny. |
| Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy | Imposing a pattern on data by cherry-picking after the fact Like drawing a bullseye around clustered shots after firing at a barn. |
| Gambler's Fallacy | Believing past random outcomes change future probabilities After five reds, roulette odds for red are still the same. |
| Hot Hand Fallacy | Assuming a streak means higher odds will continue A player's streak feels “hot” though chance often explains runs. |
| Regression Fallacy | Mistaking reversion to average for a causal effect Extreme scores tend to be followed by more average ones, without intervention. |
| Conjunction Fallacy | Judging a specific combination as more likely than a single event Linda problem: a detailed story feels likelier than a broad category. |
| Law of Small Numbers | Overtrusting small samples to reflect the population Small polls swing wildly; they aren't stable mirrors of the electorate. |
| Sunk Cost Fallacy | Continuing a bad choice to justify past investments Throwing good money after bad to “make it worth it.” |
| Planning Fallacy | Underestimating time, costs, and risks of tasks Projects routinely overrun despite past experience saying they will. |
| Nirvana Fallacy | Rejecting solutions because they aren't perfect Don't reject better because it's not best; perfect is the enemy of good. |
| Middle Ground Fallacy | Assuming the compromise between two claims is true Truth isn't guaranteed to lie halfway between two positions. |
| Appeal to Probability | Assuming that what can happen is bound to happen 'It could happen' doesn't mean it will or that it's likely. |
| Fallacy of Composition | Assuming parts' properties apply to the whole Each musician is great, but the band may still sound bad together. |
| Fallacy of Division | Assuming the whole's properties apply to its parts The team is excellent; not every member must be excellent. |
| Ecological Fallacy | Inferring individual traits from aggregate statistics High average income in a region doesn't mean each resident is rich. |
| Prosecutor's Fallacy | Confusing P(evidence|innocent) with P(innocent|evidence) A 1-in-1,000 random-match rate is not the chance the suspect is innocent. |
| Continuum Fallacy | Dismissing categories due to fuzzy boundaries That baldness has no exact cutoff doesn't mean 'bald' is meaningless. |
| Spotlight Fallacy | Treating media exposure as evidence of prevalence What gets covered often seems common, regardless of actual rates. |
| Availability Cascade | Believing repetition makes a claim true Echoed claims feel true as they spread through media and conversation. |
| Relative Privation | Dismissing an issue because worse problems exist 'There are bigger problems' doesn't refute a valid concern. |
| Motte-and-Bailey | Retreating to a safer claim when the bold one is attacked Advance a bold claim, then fall back to a vague, defensible one. |
| Gish Gallop | Burying opponents under many weak, rapid claims Quantity over quality exploits time limits and rebuttal fatigue. |
| Thought-Terminating Cliché | Using a stock phrase to end further thinking Phrases like 'It is what it is' short-circuit debate. |
| Streetlight Effect | Looking only where evidence is easy to find Searching for keys only under the lamp while ignoring the dark. |